Default emission intensities. The per-tonne CO₂e numbers preloaded for each sector (steel 1.85, aluminum 12.6, cement 0.73, fertilizers 2.4, hydrogen 9.5, electricity 0.35 per MWh) are JRC / IPCC sector averages. A specific shipment can swing well off these — a Chinese BOF mill on coal-heavy power is closer to 2.2; an Indian sponge-iron route is higher again. For actual CBAM declarations the registered, verified-emissions data from the installation operator wins. The defaults here are for back-of-envelope cost modeling, not for filing.
The 2026 number looks small. It is not the policy. Q1 2026 certificate price is €75.36/tCO₂ and the adjustment factor is 2.5% — so even a steel-heavy importer sees only a few €/t in actual cost this year. The bill compounds: 13.5% in 2028, 25% in 2030, 60% in 2032, 100% in 2034. Multiply the "nominal" figure above by your 2034 import volume to see what the policy is actually pricing.
The real cost is not the duty. CBAM's burden in 2026 is the verification, registry, and quarterly declaration build-out — not the duty itself. Importers without an authorized declarant by March 31 2026 cannot import covered goods at all. Get the verifier and the registry account first; the cash bill is the easy part.