CBAM's Q2 2026 certificate price publishes July 6. Thirty-eight days from today.
Q1 set €75.36/tonne CO₂. With this year's 2.5% adjustment factor, the cash impact is small — a tonne of imported steel carries roughly €1 to €4 of CBAM cost. But what publishes July 6 isn't just a single number. The point is how it moves.
Three numbers to watch on July 6
One — the Q2 certificate price itself. The Commission uses the previous quarter's EU ETS auction average. EU ETS futures are currently trading €82 to €88, so Q2 lands most likely in the €80 to €90 range. Above €90 starts to move the dial on Q3-delivery contract pricing even at the 2.5% factor.
Two — whether EU JRC default emission factors get a refresh. CBAM is continuously rebuilding embedded-emissions transparency. A revised default release in early July could lift steel / aluminum / cement embedded intensities by 5% to 10%. Same tonnage, 5-10 pp larger bill.
Three — whether EU buyers start writing "verified emissions data" into RFQs. CBAM's real cost is the data infrastructure, not the duty. EU buyers will begin embedding "can you provide third-party-verified per-tonne emissions" as a sourcing prerequisite from Q3 onward. Chinese exporters who don't prepare don't lose a single order — they lose 2027-onward EU supplier eligibility.
Run your numbers in the CBAM Cost Estimator
DutyTrade's new tool maps directly onto this. Open the calculator, pick your HS scope (steel / aluminum / cement / fertilizers / hydrogen / electricity), enter tonnage and current certificate price (default €75.36, overlay the new July 6 number), and read out the cash-impact curve through 2034 as the adjustment factor ramps to 100%.
A specific example. A Chinese steel mill exports 50,000 tonnes of hot-rolled coil to the EU annually. BOF process, embedded intensity 1.85 tCO₂/tonne. Plug in:
- 2026 at 2.5% factor: annual CBAM bill ≈ €170,000
- 2030 at 25% factor: same basis ≈ €1.7 million
- 2034 at 100% factor: same basis ≈ €6.9 million
Cumulative 2026-2034 CBAM cash outflow ≈ €25 million — which sits inside gross margin and which EU customers will almost certainly demand be passed through.
Six-week prep checklist — week by week
Week 1 (now to June 5): inventory 2025 full-year EU exports by tonnage × HS chapter × plant. Run CBAM Cost Estimator to get the 2026-2034 cash-impact curve. Output: internal board cash-impact memo.
Week 2 (June 6-12): shortlist one or two third-party verified-emissions providers (typical options: TÜV NORD, SGS, Bureau Veritas). Get pricing. Output: verification budget.
Week 3 (June 13-19): engage top three EU buyer procurement teams on 2027-onward verified emissions requirements. Output: buyer requirements document.
Week 4 (June 20-26): launch plant-side embedded emissions data collection — build the table around EU JRC's cradle-to-gate boundary definition. Output: data collection process live.
Week 5 (June 27-July 3): complete the first internal emissions calculation draft, compare against JRC defaults. If actual plant emissions are below the default (Chinese BOF-route producers typically are), the gap is your future CBAM discount — but only verifiable values capture it. Output: internal calc + JRC comparison.
Week 6 (July 4-6): monitor the Q2 certificate price release. Recompute the 2026-2034 curve with the new price in the calculator. Refresh the board memo. Output: post-Q2 impact update.
In one line
CBAM is a free option in 2026 — the bills are small, but so is the window to build the data infrastructure underneath. Plants that build the data foundation one year early have unit CBAM costs 30% to 50% lower than plants scrambling in 2028 (per EU JRC 2024 impact assessment). July 6 isn't a payment day. It's a check-up day.
Today's action steps — three things:
One. Open the CBAM Cost Estimator and run your plant tonnage and HS scope through the 2026-2034 cumulative cash impact projection.
Two. Stand up Week 1 of the checklist (inventory exports by HS × plant) as a project today.
Three. Subscribe to the /updates policy feed — we'll sync the Q2 certificate price to the live feed within two hours of release on July 6.
Figures
| Annex | Coverage | Examples | Rate | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I-A | Articles made entirely or almost entirely of steel/Al/Cu | Bars, rods, plates, sheets, tubes, pipes, unwrought metal | 50% | Full customs value |
| I-B | Derivative articles with substantial metal content | Bicycles, washing machines, prefab structures, wire products | 25% | Full customs value (was: metal content) |
| II | Metal-intensive industrial / electrical grid equipment (transitional) | Transmission towers, transformers, certain wind components | 15% | Full customs value · expires Dec 31, 2027 |
| III | Trade Agreement Partner-origin metal, drawback-eligible | Annex I-B articles where metal smelted in UK/EU/JP/KR/MX/CA | Varies | Drawback restored |