Cross-border trade — 10 things to know on May 28, 2026

1. §122 struck down by the Court of International Trade — yesterday's single-source signal is now confirmed by 10+ top firms. On May 7, 2026, the CIT held in a 2-1 split that Proclamation 11012 (the February 20 order imposing the §122 10% global surcharge) is invalid as a matter of law. Reason: the statutory prerequisite under Trade Act §122 — "a large and serious balance-of-payments deficit" — was not satisfied. Burlap & Barrel, Basic Fun, and the State of Washington (the three plaintiffs) received a permanent injunction. Gibson Dunn, Skadden, Norton Rose Fulbright, Holland & Knight, Perkins Coie all converge on the same read.

2. CAFC administrative stay May 12 — §122 is still being collected. The Federal Circuit issued an administrative stay five days after the CIT ruling, freezing the CIT injunction pending appeal. This means every other importer except the three plaintiffs continues paying the §122 10% surcharge. The CIT decision so far carries legal-confirmation value, not cash-return effect.

3. §122's second half has two possible endings. Path A: CAFC overturns the CIT, §122 holds until §301 takes over on July 24. Path B: CAFC affirms the CIT, §122 is fully invalidated and possibly with retroactive refund implications. Either resolves before July 24 — which elevates the §301 16-economy investigation from "one of several transitional tools" to "the single legally defensible US tariff lever on China-origin goods."

4. The actual first US-Mexico bilateral round runs May 28-29 — Deputy USTR Goettman leads. USTR's late-May announcement clarified: the "week of May 25" headline meant the first formal round is May 28 (today) and May 29 (tomorrow), in Mexico City. Greer does not personally attend; Deputy USTR Jeff Goettman leads the US team. Agenda: economic security + rules of origin for key industrial goods — putting rules of origin as the first-round centerpiece.

5. Three rounds locked: May 28-29 / June 16-17 / week of July 20. Round 2 in Washington adds agriculture and "level playing field." Round 3 in Mexico City lands the week before the July 24 §301 action. Three prep rounds before the July 1 trilateral confirms Ebrard's earlier framing: USMCA review is a multi-year rolling cycle, not a one-shot deadline.

6. CAPE first refund landing still publicly unconfirmed — nearing the end of the ACH window. Sixteen days since Treasury's May 12 ACH start. Under CBP's "3-5 weeks ACH from liquidation/reliquidation" guidance, May 12-13 liquidation batches should hit accounts around June 2-6. Public confirmations from importers should begin to appear next week. Audit trail: Apr 28 first court declaration → May 11 progress report ($35.46B refund pool) → May 12 ACH start → expect Jun 2 first confirmations.

7. §301 178-product China exclusion extended to November 10 — exact alignment with Busan expiry. The post-summit USTR action extended exemptions on 178 China-origin product categories under the existing §301 (forced tech transfer) regime through November 10, 2026. Every China-tariff lever is now aligned to the same date.

8. §232 metals tiered system completes a stable second month. The April 6 architecture — 50% on commodity / 25% on derivatives with ≥15% metal content / full exemption below 15% — operating without major controversy in month two. CBP's scope-ruling request queue is building; those rulings will determine which HS codes land in 25% vs 50% over the next 18 months.

9. §232 pharma 64 days from kickoff. The 100% rate goes live for the 17 Annex III companies on July 31; other pharma companies on September 29. Switzerland holds the 15% preferential tier. Ireland, India, China, Singapore, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, France, Italy stay on the default 100%.

10. Busan-truce countdown 166 days — the §122 judicial risk has tightened November 10's real pressure. The May 26 framing was "all architectural deadlines now visible." Today adds a layer — §122 may still be fully overturned by CAFC before July 24. Under Path B (§122 invalidated), the US briefly loses one tariff layer on China-origin goods before §301 lands, which is short-term relief for Chinese exporters; but the §301 16-economy investigation's landing posture is further elevated. The political weight of July 24 has climbed meaningfully from late April to late May. CFO models now need to build separate scenarios for Path A and Path B, not a single baseline.