Cross-border trade — 10 things to know on May 6, 2026

1. Day one of the §301 excess-capacity hearings — testimony aimed at China. On May 5 at the ITC main hearing room, roughly 150 witnesses from US industry, foreign governments and think tanks began rotating through the four-day docket that runs to May 8. Day-one testimony broke heavily one way: US-side witnesses focused on China; the other 15 listed economies got "scant mention," and one witness explicitly asked USTR to drop them from scope. CNAS's Emily Kilcrease was among the first-day witnesses. Whether the "16-economy §301" narrows to a "China-only" instrument by the July 24 action target now has a concrete hearing-record trail.

2. CAPE's first IEEPA refund is scheduled for May 11. CBP's progress filing to the CIT through April 26: 75,306 CAPE Declarations submitted, 47,315 (62%) passed file validation, covering 11,222,927 entries — roughly 21% of total IEEPA-paid entries. About 1.74M entries (3% of total) have entered the refund process. The 60–90 day timeline from CAPE Declaration acceptance to actual disbursement holds. First cash lands Monday.

3. Forced-labor §301 rebuttal comments due May 8. The April 28 – May 1 hearings ran four days across 60 economies, 12 panels, ~60 witnesses. The post-hearing rebuttal window — the last open comment opportunity before USTR moves to determination — closes Friday. Investigation, not tariff. No rate yet.

4. Judge Eaton ordered CBP's next CAPE progress report for May 12. With 3% in the refund process and the first refund slated for May 11, the May 12 filing's key data point is how fast CBP can climb to 30%, 50%. CFO models anchored to late Q3 are the conservative read; this report decides whether to pull that forward.

5. First formal US-Mexico USMCA round scheduled for the week of May 25, Mexico City. Greer flew to CDMX on April 20 to meet President Sheinbaum directly, with separate sessions for the Mexican steel industry and the CEO group from GM México, Nissan, Mazda, BMW, Stellantis, and Mercedes-Benz México. Four-bucket agenda: economic security, complementary trade actions, strengthened rules of origin for key industrial goods, critical-minerals collaboration. USTR has signalled that §232 / §301 / §122 tariffs on Mexican-origin goods stay in place during the talks.

6. Mexico's retaliation list surfaces in the press. Reports indicate the Sheinbaum government is preparing a 5–20% retaliatory tariff list targeting pork, cheese, produce, steel, and aluminum. No Diario Oficial publication yet — this is leaked-prep stage. Mexico is keeping both options on the table: the May 25 talks, and a posture of "ready to walk."

7. Canada's Liberals returned a minority government on April 28. Carney's government enters the July 1 USMCA review countdown. With the US-Mexico bilateral track already on the calendar for May 25, Canada's own track is now starting to move — Canada's seat at the trilateral, absent from the April 20 Greer-Sheinbaum joint statement, is climbing back to the table; the question is at what speed.

8. The US average effective tariff rate has climbed to 11.8% — the highest since the early 1940s. After the April 6 §232 metals full-customs-value methodology took effect, the consolidated rate slid into this bracket. Yale Budget Lab's April 8 measurement is the comparison anchor. This is the realized weighted average — §232 + §301 + §122 + §122 temporary global + AD/CVD all stacked — not a forecast.

9. The §301 maritime / shipbuilding investigation's vessel fees took effect April 17. Buried under §301 excess-capacity and §232 pharma in most trade-press coverage. The provisions reach the structure of port-entry fees on Chinese-built vessels — the same §232-style logic extending out to maritime supply chains. The semiconductors sub-action keeps an initial 0% rate, scheduled to step up June 23, 2027.

10. The US-China Busan truce expires November 10 — 188 days from today. Every May milestone — the §301 hearings opening May 5, the forced-labor rebuttal May 8, the first CAPE refund May 11, Eaton's progress report May 12, the US-Mexico round May 25 — is a mid-stretch move on the same November 10 countdown. If Busan does not get renewed, the full §232 / §301 / §122 stack on Chinese-origin goods and Beijing's rare-earth countermeasures both come back to the table the same day. The heaviest knot in 2026 trade gets cut on that date.