Cross-border trade — 10 things to know on May 3, 2026

1. USTR §301 excess-capacity hearings open Monday May 5, run through May 8. The 16 named economies — China, the EU, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan (China), Bangladesh, Mexico, Japan, India — see their capacity numbers placed on the same docket for the first time. Schedule is by sector, not by economy. USTR Greer's stated action target: July 24. The 135-day calendar compresses the 2017 China §301 timeline by 58% (322 days then).

2. CAPE Phase 1 enters week three: 11.2M filings in the system, 3% have entered the refund stage. CBP executive director Brandon Lord's April 28 court declaration uses the phrase "entered the refund stage" — not "refunded." Expected timeline from CAPE Declaration acceptance to actual refund is 60-90 days, absent compliance review. Judge Eaton ordered the next CBP progress report May 12. CFO cash-flow models anchored to Q2-end need to slide to late Q3, possibly later.

3. Forced-labor §301 hearings ran April 28 to May 1, post-hearing rebuttal comments due May 8. Sixty economies were heard across four days. USTR's published sector framing: textiles/apparel, footwear, agriculture and seafood, electronics, solar modules and batteries, auto parts, critical minerals. Investigation stage, no rates yet. May 8 is the last open comment window before USTR moves to determination.

4. First formal US-Mexico USMCA bilateral round scheduled for the week of May 25, Mexico City. Ambassador Greer travelled to CDMX on April 20 to meet President Sheinbaum directly, plus separate sessions with the Mexican steel industry and the CEO group from GM México, Nissan Mexicana, Mazda, BMW, Stellantis, and Mercedes-Benz México. Agenda: economic security, complementary trade actions, strengthened rules of origin for key industrial goods, critical-minerals collaboration. USTR has signalled separately that existing §232/§301/§122 tariffs on Mexican-origin goods stay in place during the talks.

5. §232 metals "full customs value" methodology completes its first month. Effective April 6, Annex I-A primary metals at 50% on full customs value, Annex I-B derivatives at 25% on full customs value — ending seven years of metal-content fractional pricing. The combined US tariff on Chinese flat-rolled steel (MFN + §301 + §232 + §122) exceeds 90%. Goods with ≤15% metal content remain fully exempt.

6. §232 pharma 100% rate is on a calendar. Patented drugs and APIs at 100% ad valorem on full value; Switzerland on the 15% preferential tier; Ireland, India, China, Singapore, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, France, Italy default to the 100% rate. Annex III's 17 named companies are subject to the rate from July 31; other companies from September 29. Generics and biosimilars are exempt.

7. Mexico's December 2024 textile decree sunset on April 23 as scheduled. The 155 temporary HS 61/62 lines (15-35%) reverted to MFN — but the December 2025 legislative package (1,463 lines, in force since January 1, 2026) absorbed the same scope. Apparel rates remain elevated; the legal basis changed, the prices did not. The IMMEX prohibition on Chapters 61, 62, 63 is a permanent amendment to the IMMEX Decree and does not sunset with the tariffs.

8. CBAM Q2 2026 certificate price publishes July 6; Q1 set at €75.36/tCO₂. The 2026 adjustment factor remains 2.5% — actual CBAM bills are tiny in the near term and only reach 100% by 2034. The real cost driver is the verified-emissions registry the EU is forcing exporters to build — money, headcount, IT — and over the long arc that infrastructure cost outweighs the duty itself.

9. China-side retaliation signal — single source, awaiting verification. A single trade-policy outlet reports that Beijing issued a supply-chain security regulation on April 7 (granting authorities sanctioning power over foreign companies), restricted solar-panel equipment exports on April 15, and tightened rare-earth flows to Japan. MOFCOM-direct or wire-service confirmation is pending. If the cluster verifies, it would be Beijing's first systematic retaliation since the Busan truce.

10. US-China Busan truce expires November 10 — 191 days from today. The October 2025 Busan agreement paused reciprocal retaliatory tariffs and China's rare-earth export controls. Without renewal, the full §232 / §301 / §122 stack on Chinese-origin goods and Beijing's rare-earth countermeasures both return to the table. Every cross-border trade negotiation in 2026 is anchored to this November 10 endpoint: the July 24 §301 action target, the July 1 USMCA review, the May 25 US-Mexico round, the April §232 metals overhaul — each one is positioning ahead of that date.